The Signal and the Noise

Review The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don’t

by NATE SILVER

Description

The Signal and the Noise conveys a lot of messages. For one, it takes its readers to the world of probability where the Bayesian theory is introduced. It also serves as material to assess and ponder on one’s fortune and his underlying character traits. Most notably, this book serves as a guide to many to determine and avoid misleading data and predictions. 

A big reading impacting businesses, sports events, and even monetary policies is Silver’s writing. As it explains and exposes the themes of prediction and characteristics of a good forecaster, this book is a practical guide to analysts wanting to understand the nature of predicting outcomes with crucial implications in the financial world.

About the Author

Founding the FiveThirtyEight website, Nate Silver started as a forecaster of baseball events. Silver has the natural inclination to predicting outcomes until he predicted the 2008 elections that put him to the limelight of accurate forecasting. He fortified his skill by posting his insights about predicting through blogging. He became a sensational political forecaster when his 2012 election predictions were extremely close to the official results. 

Table of Contents

The book is simply structured with the following contents:

Introduction

1. A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction
2. Are You Smarter than a Television Pundit?
3. All I Care About is W’s and I’s
4. For Years You’ve Been Telling Us That Rain is Green
5. Desperately Seeking Signal
6. How to Drown in Three Feet of Water
7. Role Models
8. Less and Less and Less Wrong
9. Rage Against the Machines
10. The Poker Bubble
11. If You Can’t Beat ‘Em
12. A Climate of Healthy Skepticism
13. What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You

Conclusion

Acknowledgments

Notes

Index